VA is about 35% minority and I see almost 0% of that vote going to Trump. Turnout is key there, but minorities are showing up for HRC strongly so far and in an election against an open racist it may even rival Barack's turnout.

Then you have roughly 2.5 million of the state's 8 million living in an area that has almost zero interest in Donald Trump being president.
For a Republican to win VA I think it's almost imperative to get a strong turnout of what I call the "Boca Vote" in places like Fairfax, Loudoun, PW, etc. You're talking an area of around 2 million in population that relatively well-to-do, educated, and prosperous and once voted heavily for Reagan and both Bushes--but have been trending blue. These aren't people who want to burn America to the ground. This year, they were heavy voters for Rubio in the GOP primary and most I know are disgusted by Trump to the point where they say without batting an eyelash they're voting for HRC.

Take that along with the other population centers like Richmond, 757, C'Ville, etc. and it's hard to see a path for Trump. I just don't think a Republican can win the state without at least half a million votes from DC Metro. I see Trump getting cleaned up and Hillary dominating the area. The message about closed factories and jobs going to the Chinese isn't going to carry you in the Commonwealth, and I'm not sure how he'll do with the 757 military types either.