The Soapbox

Joined: 01/04/2001 Posts: 27146
Likes: 34481

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The future will bring what it will bring. There are no crystal balls.

But so far, the economy has really continued on the same trajectory it was on when Trump got here. I don't doubt the positive near term effects on growth of reducing regulation (but the haphazard approach to it could bring longer terms costs) or the corporate tax reduction, which I support. Maybe the current expansion, which has been historically long, would have sputtered without those factors. But I'm not a fan of the accelerated capex deduction. I think its a distortion. Maybe it will bring sustained increases in productivity that will translate to somewhat better growth for a while, but that will depend on a whole bunch of other factors.

The trade war could well be the biggest offset to any of those gains if it continues and/or intensifies.

(In response to this post by Stimp)

Posted: 05/16/2019 at 10:35AM

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Current Thread:

Angela Merkel Identifies U.S. as Global Rival That, Along With China -- Hooddihsm 05/16/2019 08:59AM

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Next thing you know they will be bombing Pearl Harbor again ** -- 757 05/16/2019 10:21AM

I'm not stopping you. ** -- jdubforwahoowa 05/16/2019 10:28AM

Make the EU Great Again! EU First. ** -- Hoodafan 05/16/2019 09:52AM

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Uh, no ** -- Hoogle.com 05/16/2019 10:01AM

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Doubtful. All this talk of our economy hollowing out, that's been -- hoolstoptheheels 05/16/2019 09:35AM

Curious then why brexit party is getting ready to dominate? -- TomKazanski 05/16/2019 09:54AM

No, actually, they are zooming along at virtually the same exact trajectory -- hoolstoptheheels 05/16/2019 10:04AM

If brexit was doing as much damage as you say looks like you could create a -- TomKazanski 05/16/2019 10:26AM

Don't you tell me what I know Tommy! -- hoolstoptheheels 05/16/2019 10:52AM

Again if brexit was doing as much damage as you claimed -- TomKazanski 05/16/2019 11:18AM

I didn't claim economic damage in the US. And this is just your politics -- hoolstoptheheels 05/16/2019 11:33AM

You said damage done by populists policies ** -- TomKazanski 05/16/2019 12:49PM

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That would have been a very good idea, I agree. ** -- hoolstoptheheels 05/16/2019 1:29PM

Really? What did Ken Elzinga teach you about the lagging nature of... -- Stimp 05/16/2019 10:10AM

The future will bring what it will bring. There are no crystal balls. -- hoolstoptheheels 05/16/2019 10:35AM

Not to mention incremental growth from different levels. Clearly if Trump -- Hoodafan 05/16/2019 10:26AM

That assumes the tax cuts were invested in capex ** -- 111Balz 05/16/2019 10:16AM

Something did it. CAPEX increased nearly 40% in Q12018. -- Stimp 05/16/2019 10:31AM

Being able to write off 100% of capex certainly helped -- 111Balz 05/16/2019 11:03AM

The ability to expense capex upfront, more than likely. -- hoolstoptheheels 05/16/2019 10:25AM

That pop was almost all in Q1 18; poop by Q4** -- 111Balz 05/16/2019 11:06AM

It did. We don't have to assume anything. Other than maybe what it will be -- Hoodafan 05/16/2019 10:31AM

Which is exactly what happened ** -- 111Balz 05/16/2019 11:24AM

Ummm, oh never mind. ** -- Hoodafan 05/16/2019 10:23AM

America was never great...never evah? ** -- Tuckahokie 05/16/2019 09:44AM

America never stopped being great. From the day the Constitution was -- hoolstoptheheels 05/16/2019 09:55AM

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How so? I work. Haven't noticed that it screwed me. ** -- 111Balz 05/16/2019 10:22AM

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I will ask a second time. How so? ** -- 111Balz 05/16/2019 11:03AM

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How did the paris accord cause higher energy prices? have they -- 111Balz 05/16/2019 11:22AM

Your analysis doesn't factor in reduced medical bills from cleaner air ** -- WahooMatt05 05/16/2019 11:20AM

Dude seriously? -- BocaHoo91 05/16/2019 2:38PM

Yes, seriously -- WahooMatt05 05/16/2019 4:14PM

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