I think he probably would have carried all the states that Hill carried (maybe places like Virginia and Colorado would have been in play, but I'm betting it would have still been mostly an anti-Trump vote in those places), plus he'd have kept the blue collar vote in places like PA, WI, and MI. He may have even carried FL. Although FL seems to be getting very red. I think it took an unusually unappealing candidate like Hill to lose to Trump.

But that was then, and this is now, and Trump the incumbent will likely be a much tougher out than Trump the candidate. Especially if it's somebody he can demonize as a socialist. He's good at that. I think there is a middle out there looking for a home. Hill had so much history, so much bad blood with so many people, and just doesn't connect well on the campaign trial - I think she got far more "anybody but Hill" votes against than, say, a Biden would have.

I think a Bern could still win, but that's not the choice I'm personally looking for (so my views are influenced by my preference). I desperately want a centrist option, even if center-left, and I think that is the best way to pull back the relatively small swath of voters that resulted in such a large electoral college win. And if you're looking to boost the vote tally for Schultz the coffee man, put up a self proclaimed socialist as the dem in the general.