what happened when, Virginia might not even have seceded had Lincoln not demanded Virginia raise militia troops to put down the insurgency. (IIRC April 15, 1861) The votes before the troop demand were against secession; the vote following was for secession, the next day or the day after I believe. (just looked it up: April 17, 1861)

Note Kentucky merely refused the demand, and didn't secede. Lincoln was wise enough not to press the issue. "I hope to have God on my side, but I must have Kentucky," he wrote in September of 1861, five months after the crisis precipitated by his calling up of the troops (and to be fair, the reaction to it.)

You'd have to think he would have been just as solicitous of Virginia. Perhaps had the Virginia delegates at the secession convention not taken Lincoln at his word and his demand for troops at face value, had they had a governor like Magoffin instead of Henry Wise (who was pro-secession), a great deal of heartache could have been avoided, because without Virginia and men like Lee and Jackson and Stuart the war wouldn't have lasted as it did. I wouldn't like the chances of Beauregard and Longstreet and Braxton Bragg and Johnston against Lee and Stuart and Sherman and Grant and Jackson, that's for sure.

He clearly grew in office and I doubt seriously the 1863 or 1864 Abe Lincoln would have used such a heavy hand, had he had it to do all over again.