The Soapbox

Joined: 10/18/1998 Posts: 698
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What's this?

Did you look at the exit poll article?

I've linked it. Youngkin's biggest gains were with young voters. "Youngkin won the support of nearly half of all voters younger than 30 — a 15 percentage point improvement over Republican gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie in 2017. Half of voters aged 30-44 said they also voted for Youngkin, a group Democrats won handily four years ago." He also had a 6% gain among moderates and a 4% gain among independents. Were all those young people, moderates, and independents brought into his camp by "right wing culture war issues"?

The talking point derives from latching on to one data point--the Fox News exit poll that claimed that for 25% of voters CRT was the most important issue--and extrapolating from that to say Youngkin won because of CRT. A more sophisticated and responsible analysis, as the Vox piece explains, must take into account whether any of those 25% were in play (and that assumes the validity of the Fox News exit poll). If not, then those people had no effect on the outcome of the election. The critical question is what caused voters who voted blue in 2017 to switch to red in 2021? "Right wing culture war issues" can't be the answer to that question, unless those voters turned into right wing culture warriors over the preceding four years. The answer has to be more complex than that.

[Post edited by Joey Wahoo at 09/29/2023 1:22PM]

(In response to this post by 111Balz)

Posted: 09/29/2023 at 1:17PM

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Current Thread:

Thank you, DJT Jr. -- DanTheFan 09/29/2023 10:34AM

I'd take Younkin over Trump in a heartbeat ** -- HoodatB 09/29/2023 10:52AM

I'd take a well-trained dog over Trump ** -- Capital City Hoo 09/29/2023 1:36PM

WELL trained? Why is that a requirement when the alternative is Trump? ** -- Late 80s Hokie 09/29/2023 2:28PM

That’s about as low a bar as there is ** -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 12:49PM

Curious - do people believe Trump 2024 is the last time -- Zhoo 09/29/2023 11:29AM

I expect that if he wins in 2024 -- NJHoo 09/29/2023 11:33AM

People are saying he should get 8 more years -- HoodatB 09/29/2023 12:03PM

Yep. He has planted the seeds of that already. ** -- VAGentleman05 09/29/2023 1:16PM

Relatively easy. Run as VP, then new POTUS resigns. -- DanTheFan 09/29/2023 4:24PM

I'd take a Democratic General Assembly over a GOP one. ** -- DanTheFan 09/29/2023 11:01AM

The GOP has been working on that ** -- Hoo TV 09/29/2023 11:06AM

… an actual turnip v TFG in a heartbeat ** -- WaxHoo 09/29/2023 10:55AM

If the Vest is savvy he waits out this election cycle...finishes his term -- Tuckahokie 09/29/2023 10:48AM

There is talk of serious Rs trying to draft him for ‘24. -- SixerHoo 09/29/2023 11:24AM

There is literally no talk of this. ** -- ryno hoo 09/29/2023 11:25AM

Link… -- SixerHoo 09/29/2023 11:28AM

He is a 🧌 ** -- HoodatB 09/29/2023 12:30PM

Clearly. ** -- SixerHoo 09/29/2023 12:34PM

Right. Hearsay from an opinion piece in an enemy publication. -- ryno hoo 09/29/2023 11:40AM

Or '32 after a mid-term assignment in the Haley administration. :-) -- Hoodafan 09/29/2023 11:23AM

That's also why the depth of the bench doesn't matter much :) -- CMUHoo 09/29/2023 12:56PM

Michael Bloomberg wonders why he's so quickly forgotten. :-) -- Hoodafan 09/29/2023 1:06PM

As far as I'm concerned, civil war has been underway since 2016 -- CMUHoo 09/29/2023 1:14PM

No WHITE duck boots with the vest ** -- Zhoo 09/29/2023 11:17AM

Red and white is a nice pairing. Why do you hate Santa Claus? ** -- Hoodafan 09/29/2023 11:25AM

Only fake Santas wear white boots. ** -- SixerHoo 09/29/2023 11:31AM

Santa wears black boots (like the military) :) -- Zhoo 09/29/2023 11:28AM

The country needs candidates like Youngkin now -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 11:01AM

I think we need someone a lot better than him. ** -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 12:44PM

He is not that bad. And the Dems can’t talk on this topic. -- HoodatB 09/29/2023 1:16PM

How often do incumbents get challenged? ** -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 1:58PM

Fair question but we have never had a Pres this old -- HoodatB 09/29/2023 3:22PM

Fair points. ** -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 3:25PM

Lack of a unifying alternative, lack of confidence or maybe imagination in -- hoolstoptheheels 09/29/2023 1:29PM

Standard (re: extreme) Dems hate Youngkin. -- ryno hoo 09/29/2023 11:22AM

Youngkin won because TMac ran an arrogant, entitled campaign -- SixerHoo 09/29/2023 11:17AM

I think MacAuliffe did a good job as governor. -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 11:22AM

I don’t think this analysis is correct. Youngkin won by making right wing -- TomGlansAski 09/29/2023 11:37AM

And VA white suburban mom's bought it ** -- Hoo TV 09/29/2023 12:58PM

That's a partisan talking point. It is not supported by the data. ** -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 12:12PM

Well… he did. We all watched and listened. I can’t tell you how many -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 12:47PM

Youngkin barely won an off-year election that usually goes to the out of -- WahooRQ 09/29/2023 12:27PM

LOL ** -- TomGlansAski 09/29/2023 12:25PM

What data? ** -- SixerHoo 09/29/2023 12:21PM

Start with the exit polls -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 12:46PM

I appreciate the substantive answer but am not convinced -- SixerHoo 09/29/2023 1:16PM

Joey, everyone heard about CRT. And the author says that education and CRT. -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 1:02PM

Did you look at the exit poll article? -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 1:17PM

Thanks for this one. I was only reacting to the other one you linked -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 3:07PM

Sorry, I forgot the link. Here it is. -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 1:20PM

Thanks, but that article does not suggest why there was a shift in those -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 3:20PM

Helpful, but exit polls don’t get into turnout. -- WahooRQ 09/29/2023 1:29PM

I'm not claiming there was a rightward shift in VA politics -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 1:46PM

Do you think Youngkin has, today, the same appeal with moderates that you -- southdenverhoo 09/29/2023 2:28PM

I don't know -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 3:41PM

Interesting. From out here I saw Youngkin much differently than you did. -- southdenverhoo 09/29/2023 5:33PM

I will get to the exit poll article, but in the meantime, what -- southdenverhoo 09/29/2023 1:25PM

Interesting. So higher turnout in almost every county/city but -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 1:40PM

Very good point and a deficiency in the graph, as far as responding to your -- southdenverhoo 09/29/2023 2:03PM

That says it all ** -- Hoo TV 09/29/2023 1:32PM

They have to come up with a way to rationalize away simply getting beat by -- Hoodafan 09/29/2023 12:57PM

Well, if you really read the entire article, you know that the exit polling -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 1:04PM

Yes, he did a good job as governor. So did Northam. ** -- SixerHoo 09/29/2023 11:25AM

Yep. Made the non-existent CRT issue an issue to draw out the racist -- HoosWillWin 09/29/2023 11:16AM

Promises made, promises kept ** -- Hoo TV 09/29/2023 12:43PM

Agree...but unless Trump drops out for some reason then Youngkin ends -- Tuckahokie 09/29/2023 11:08AM

I understand. But Trump will continue to run every 4 years for the rest -- Joey Wahoo 09/29/2023 11:14AM

The wokesters? Wolk simply means being aware that certain types of people -- 111Balz 09/29/2023 12:56PM

I think there’s such a thing as “wokesters” in the context Joey means. -- hoolstoptheheels 09/29/2023 1:24PM

Trump won’t likely live another 5/10 years and if he does his mental state -- Hooooooooooooooo 09/29/2023 12:51PM

Don’t see why it’s necessary to draw equivalence between “wokesters” and -- WahooRQ 09/29/2023 12:08PM

Hear, hear! ** -- TomGlansAski 09/29/2023 12:42PM

‘28 is eons away. For whatever reason, Trumpworld seems to want to do in -- hoolstoptheheels 09/29/2023 10:54AM

That really is mindnumbingly stupid of him. -- hoolstoptheheels 09/29/2023 10:44AM

I’d say 100% on brand, for Junior. Possibly even dumber than his dad but -- southdenverhoo 09/29/2023 11:11AM

Well, he is a Trump, so … ** -- WaxHoo 09/29/2023 10:46AM

Rare, but that's what extremely stable, savvy genius really looks like. ** -- Cav113 09/29/2023 10:52AM