Yes but I am one who thinks
that trade deficits mean almost nothing when looking at other contexts. We have run big trade deficits at various times and sometimes with great economic booms happening at home (including with manufacturing), other times not. Trade lanes and a deficit/surplus with any particular country tends to reveal different and unique stories over some period of time. I'm not saying overall meaningless, but the key is why, what are the sector drivers, what else is going on, etc... It is just a important analysis when ones sees the export growth we are experiencing in different areas and with different countries in particular. I am not saying it is a simple stat either -- maybe our growth with sales back to China pales to what it theoretically could be (including compared to other countries) and maybe it is driven by other things that aren't sustaining. However, it is undeniable that the purchasing power of China has grown as predicted over time and they are buying (and want to buy) from other countries. It is also undeniable that some of this is fueled by the rising tide of economic growth across consumers in China. I would think it would be hard to deny by anybody being remotely objective about trade that all of this ultimately has and will continue to have positive pressures on other issues within China. Again, plenty of ongoing challenges -- is it sustainable, will they continue to embrace enough change, is there too big a wealth gap forming, etc... All fair questions, but my goodness -- as bad as some of the issues remain inside of China today, how bleak were things several generations ago but within our lifetime? Global trade has been the driving force.
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In response to this post by Hoos Operator)
Posted: 04/27/2016 at 11:33AM