Iran’s military capabilities are less than we thought before the weekend; we know western and regional commitment to Israel’s defense is far stronger than we thought, and that it’s nearly completely effective in preventing Iran from hitting anything.

You’re ignoring the (imo) very strong possibility that kicking the can will prevent any confrontation at all. Once China hits the demographic and economic wall I think is coming, already in sight, that axis of evil in total becomes less and less potent.

It’s an ongoing risk to be managed. Once Israel starts devastation required to get at a deeply buried nuke program, all you’ll have is fog of war which can’t be contained. It’s begging to unite the Axis over Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Our side has the upper hand (especially if Johnson would put Ukraine aid on the fucking floor already). I think we should keep it.