Creation estimates between surveys of employers, to extrapolate out the number of jobs they claim they added to payrolls, and surveys of families asking how many are working - they survey around 50k families, and extrapolate out to the population, which was yielding a lower number because the total population in the extrapolation was too low. Left out recent immigrants (all - legal and illegal).

From there, the question is how can so many jobs be filled - about 100k more in initial estimates for March than predicted - without having to pay up for scarce supplies of workers. The hypothesis is supply is less scarce than the estimates show because immigration is undercounted in the math.

Wages have been going up, but generally in the Goldilocks zone in low 4s outpacing inflation in low to mid 3s.

That’s the hypothesis as I’ve understood it in recent weeks. It’s just an observation of current circumstances, not a prediction of how immigration at these levels might intersect with job creation and wages going forward.