The Soapbox

Joined: 08/31/2001 Posts: 31759
Likes: 49037

What's this?

It's a form of risk arb (not exactly). Usually the risk is discounted ...

into the spread. However, it's off shore and a play on politics. I'm going to guess the method of pricing isn't very sophisticated and thus a gambler might find some favorable odds. That said, politics is volatile as hell.

[Post edited by Blah at 01/24/2024 11:56AM]

(In response to this post by CharlestonSC)

Posted: 01/24/2024 at 11:54AM

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Current Thread:

If you're sure it's going to be Biden vs. Trump you can actually make money -- CharlestonSC 01/24/2024 09:59AM

Yeah, that seems right to me. I mean, you have a decent -- BocaHoo91 01/24/2024 12:09PM

Biden is 81 and Trump is 77 and overweight ... they both could die and -- CharlestonSC 01/24/2024 12:20PM

If something happened to Trump would the Dems work on getting Biden to step -- CAVern 01/24/2024 12:51PM

Serious question....why not four more years of Biden? ** -- Seattle .Hoo 01/24/2024 1:02PM

For me, it IS the age thing. I'm aware that i border on paranoid when i -- CAVern 01/24/2024 1:09PM

And yet Biden has somehow managed to organize a coordinated NATO response -- Seattle .Hoo 01/24/2024 1:42PM

Biden is the most unfairly maligned president since at least GWHB. ** -- Faz d. Hoo 01/24/2024 6:40PM

Still, is $2k or $4.5k really that interesting? -- BocaHoo91 01/24/2024 12:29PM

Honestly, I couldn’t bet on Trump to win in good conscience -- WahooMatt05 01/24/2024 11:39AM

You *could* structure the bets such that a Trump win = breaking even and -- CharlestonSC 01/24/2024 11:42AM

It's a form of risk arb (not exactly). Usually the risk is discounted ... -- Blah 01/24/2024 11:54AM

Surprised it's even up with the variability. -- ryno hoo 01/24/2024 11:24AM

How do you place odds on an election that has already been rigged? ** -- Los Angeles Hoo 01/24/2024 12:23PM

💩 post ** -- Hoodeac 01/24/2024 1:44PM

Nonsense ** -- 111Balz 01/24/2024 12:53PM

Been talking with LAHoo again? ** -- Seattle .Hoo 01/24/2024 12:17PM

"Inflation offset." ** -- Blah 01/24/2024 11:35AM

With bidens age and trumps not so healthy -- TomKazanski 01/24/2024 10:20AM

The risk is obviously losing both bets if somebody else wins -- CharlestonSC 01/24/2024 10:30AM

There's also LAHoo's prediction that Biden will order a hit on Trump. -- Blah 01/24/2024 10:39AM

Biden couldn't order a pizza, much less a hit. ** -- Los Angeles Hoo 01/24/2024 10:59AM

^ Look another conspiracy theory!! ^ ** -- HoodatB 01/24/2024 11:57AM

I'd love to see a candid camera where Biden and Trump are both told to -- CharlestonSC 01/24/2024 11:23AM

(Pic) Checkmate -- ryno hoo 01/24/2024 11:25AM

Is that E. Jean Carroll or his wife? ** -- Blah 01/24/2024 11:30AM

Don thought it should be multiple choice. ** -- Lazarus 01/24/2024 12:20PM

It's from when all Dems loved Trump. Before Dems went extreme. ** -- ryno hoo 01/24/2024 11:43AM

Democrats loved Trump? When? I've always thought the guy was a clown. ** -- Seattle .Hoo 01/24/2024 1:51PM

Me, too, just a BIG phony. An even bigger phony than both -- Hoo TV 01/24/2024 1:56PM

Wasn’t Trump pro choice and pro gun control before? ** -- HoodatB 01/24/2024 11:53AM

Man can you imagine the conspiracy theories if Trump dies or has a serious -- KaHOOnah 01/24/2024 10:46AM

LA has already prepped us for this contingency. A “hit”. ** -- HoodatB 01/24/2024 11:54AM

The conspiracy theories would be intolerable. That said, I hope ... -- Blah 01/24/2024 10:50AM

Biden is just 3.5 years older than Trump. They were in HS at the same time -- KaHOOnah 01/24/2024 10:24AM

Cuz age is just a number, and anyone with eyes can see that… -- Los Angeles Hoo 01/24/2024 10:36AM

Quality 💩 post ** -- Hoodeac 01/24/2024 1:46PM

Anyone with ears can hear what Trump says -- Fuzzy Dunlop 01/24/2024 11:59AM

I can’t imagine an “investment” I’d be less eager to make. ** -- hoolstoptheheels 01/24/2024 10:05AM

On the flip side, if we're doomed to be ruled by one of them for the next -- CharlestonSC 01/24/2024 10:10AM

Right. If UVA is going to lose a sporting event, why not make $? ** -- HoodatB 01/24/2024 10:58AM

Hmmmm. Maybe I need to bet on tonight’s game instead. ** -- hoolstoptheheels 01/24/2024 11:21AM

UVA -6.5 so NCS should be something like +200 or so to win -- CharlestonSC 01/24/2024 11:25AM

The emotional hedge ... seen it once seen it a thousand times ** -- CharlestonSC 01/24/2024 11:00AM