I'll see if I can find the article I read a week or so ago about this.

Definitely not a swing state any more. Trump and statewide candidates have been able to run the score up in the rural areas, far more than Ds in the urban strongholds (not a lot of that in Iowa to begin with). It is a great playbook for states with highly distributed (more rural) populations (and many of those tend to be more white). There was also commentary about where people in the Upper Midwest used to get news. Much more of it was local not too long ago, less the case now (local news has really struggled). Iowa also exports a lot more college students than it imports, apparently. Mostly to neighboring states.

Rural white voters in Iowa (and probably a few other nearby states) are looking more like rural white voters in the South these days than those in the upper midwest (even as recently as 10-20 years ago).

Not a swing state.