China’s economic miracle has always been opaque - never as good as their numbers suggested. Now, things may be worse already than we think, and maybe the window’s passed.

I think Ukraine was a real cause for pause. I’m sure Xi was also surprised by western unity. But he’s probably more pleasantly surprised now by the half year of dithering which ceded momentum to Putin. And Trump’s pledges to never send another dime Ukraine’s way. The conversion of the Repub party to a nativist, isolationalist sewer (which is not universal in the party but it’s the direction) likely gives Xi more hope than he had in mid-‘22.