Ukraine war. After Ukraine, they have real doubt. They might have a lot of military advantages on paper, but Ukraine has shown that could be just on paper and for better or for worse, no other military has as much actual combat experience as US. Political news talk show discussion from China has become a lot more conservative on prospect of quick military takeover of Taiwan over past few years. And some have indicated that the window for that might have already passed.

As of Taiwan, it is not just encirclement, it is about China's getting back what's in their view, rightfully theirs. If Taiwan declares independence, a forceful reunification will have overwhelming approval by their people.