a triple of today's steel tariffs from China and what sounds like something similar coming with aluminum is more of a general political hammer than you suggest -- a classic election year move that is "real" - its being done because domestic steel wants it, not for fun -- and not suggesting it will have no effect or that we are just so mean to poor, innocent China -- but this is a fairly typical political move of the type that has ebbed and flowed for decades, with steel often in the center. It is particularly popular today with one party truing to out-argue the other as to what we are doing yo REALLY help you in Pennsylvania for example. White House tariffs and quota systems have always been used, but super vogue today. This gets layered on other tariffs and in addition to multi specific AD/CVD cases that exist on steel imports already. It's never "enough" for those who want it. It is what it is -- but its not remotely close to a scalpel imo -- it's Biden and Dems always doing some trade stuff like this and in this instance, trying to pre-empt and out populist Trump in an industry and key states where way more voters and $$$$ want as many restrictions on steel imports as they can ever get. Trump threw out "I would triple all tariffs against China immediately". Its not by chance that Biden chose "lets triple" on steel. None of it is based on one ounce of deeper analysis about actual numbers. And it also isn't a compelling argument to me that other countries that also have any semblance of domestic steel production sound supportive. Its the way the world turns with trade -- with its ebb and flow over business and political cycles.

On a different note -- I'd think I'd argue pretty strongly about the macro-strength of China's consumer sector vs. India for example. Again, cycles today may be ebbing and flowing - but in general, China has shown crazy strength in what their consumers have done at times over the past few decades and the US has had significant growth across many sectors exporting to China consumers compared to what we have generally shown to India. This shouldn't matter to some extent related to serious geopolitical issues that exist in China -- they have issues galore today, especially undet Xi. Unfortunately, so do a number of other countries -- just ones that haven't become strong enough today in a variety of areas.
[Post edited by fishhoo at 04/17/2024 12:15PM]