The Soapbox

hoolstoptheheels

Joined: 01/04/2001 Posts: 27159
Likes: 34521


Correct. But prices don’t go back down, except for actively traded


Commodities like oil (it has). The only way to go back to levels of 2019 would be a significant shrinkage of gdp causing deflation like we haven’t seen, I’m guessing since the Great Depression (‘08 got nowhere close). But wage growth has helped to catch it up, and after the Great Recession and a decade of essentially no inflation, avg inflation for the entire period since then is not far above 2%.

There will be lots of questions about how inflation came down so far, so fast, without a softening of the job market. Even if we are in for some softening this year, imo. And the answers probably do come from the unsnarling of supply chains related to the pandemic anomalies. To a pretty large extent, at least. Rapid deceleration of inflation accompanied by much stronger job and gdp growth than expected is beyond unusual - it’s basically unheard of. Which is a strong indicator of the prevalence of once per century pandemic factors in the causes of inflation in the first place. Accelerated crazily as the world opened, and really, decelerated just as crazily as job markets and overall activity also rebounded.

(In response to this post by DexterLake)

Posted: 02/11/2024 at 3:16PM



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