1) Any response is completely arbitrary. That said, I personally wouldn’t really start sweating at all until we pass the $200 billion mark. To me, that’s a very small price to pay for giving a budding democratic ally on Russia’s periphery the means to defend itself against naked aggression while, at the same time, significantly attritting Russia’s forces and standing up for longstanding international norms and the rules-based international order.

Also, and it’s impossible to put a dollar value on this: Our allies and partners around the world are watching, and so are our adversaries. Bailing on Ukraine while fighting is still ongoing will shake confidence in our commitments elsewhere and embolden adversaries to increase pressure on other fronts.

2) Ideally, Ukraine would defeat Russia and recover at least all territory lost since February 2022, perhaps even all territory lost since 2014. But that’s simply not feasible at this point no matter what weapons systems we and our Allies provide; we’d have to get involved ourselves to make that happen, and I have zero interest in seeing that happen.

So my desired end goal at this stage is a negotiated settlement that more than likely compels Ukraine to cede some territory but imposes heavy costs on Russia, including reparations; rejects Russia’s outrageous demand that Ukraine demilitarize; and establishes a series of mechanisms to guard against the possibility that Russia is open to “peace” only to buy time for a third invasion, such as leaving sanctions in place and rolling them back only if Russia withdrawals key military assets from territory near the border.

That’s possible only if Ukraine is negotiating from a position of strength, or at least parity, which it won’t be unless we keep the aid flowing. The continued aid is essential to helping Ukraine defend itself militarily, of course, but also to giving Ukraine a stronger hand to play at the negotiating table. You want peace? An actual durable peace and not just a half-surrender that shackles Ukraine and gives Russia a free hand to prepare for a third invasion that’s sure to come at some point in the future? Then you can’t make Ukraine negotiate on its knees. And you can’t do what Trump did in Afghanistan and probably wants to do in Ukraine: stab Kyiv in the back by cutting a deal directly with Moscow.


[Post edited by HoosInLondon? at 02/10/2024 10:47AM]