IMO, there are multiple reasons for last night's results not just in VA, but also in NJ, Minnie, Buffalo, Boston and NY. When you look at Minnie, Buffalo, Boston, and NY....the more moderate/less progressive position/candidate won.

Whether in VA or NJ, R's picked up votes from some who voted D in the prior election. My guess is that most of the people who changed their vote probably didn't change their internal values in 11 months. It does seem like there were big swings in some suburbs, particularly with women.

While many R's love Trump, many moderates and independents find him repulsive.....he wasn't part of the ticket and that may have helped R's on the margin (moderates and independents more likely to vote R w/o Trump on ticket, Democrats less energized = lower turnout).

Obviously, Delta, inflation, Afghanistan, supply chain issues, school shut downs, gas prices, mask/vaccine controversies, etc. didn't help the Ds. Then there are local issues including school choice/CRT/bathrooms.

Overall point, is there were multiple reasons for last night. But people usually don't change their value system quickly as adults...that is typically more static. So if they changed their mind about who they voted for, perhaps it was for a variety of reasons. Maybe, one out of ten individuals (the moderate, independent swing voter) changed their mind about which party best represented their values and their long term interests.

IMO, both Ds and Rs would be well served by looking at the overall pattern nationally. Maybe R's perform better without the Trump anchor. Maybe Ds might be better served by taking a more moderate stance. Obviously lots of different reasons for every individual voter.