at the Brookings Institution. I transcribed my notes and distributed internally here - thought they may be of some interest to some on the board. Very depressing conversation - nothing super original, but taken together just a bad set of facts:

“The Middle east is in a bad way, and it is going to get worse”
• Arab states are failing at an unprecedented rate
• State failure leads to civil wars
• Civil wars have a habit of spreading
• “scholars have found that the strongest predictor that a state will experience a civil war is whether it borders a country already embroiled in one.”

Currently in the ME:
• Full blown civil wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen
• Nascent conflicts in Egypt, Sudan, Turkey
• Real concerns in Algeria, Jordon, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia
• “Not since the Mongol invasions of the thirteenth century has the Middle East seen so much chaos”

Civil wars don’t just go away, they can last a long time
• Colombia (entering 24th)
• Congo (entering 22nd year)
• Afghanistan (37)
• Peru (36th)

The ME is more susceptible to spill-over than other regions:
• Porous borders
• Duplicative ethnic / religious populations from one state to the next
• Massive refugee outflows
• Terrorist tendencies

Spill-over effects:
• Spillover from Syria helped push Iraq back into civil war
• Spillover from the Iraqi and Syrian civil wars has generated a low-level civil war in Turkey and threatens to do the same in Jordan and Lebanon
• Spillover from Libya is destabilizing Egypt, Mali, and Tunisia.

Outside Intervention
• Often outside intervention is required to solve civil wars.
• Scholars of civil wars have found that in about 20 percent of the cases since 1945, and roughly 40 percent of the cases since 1995, an external actor was able to engineer just such an outcome.
• Absent external involvement, the region’s leaders opt for strategies that exacerbate conflict and feed instability.

We are unlikely to get any coherent policy from the US to help mitigate or solve these conflicts

Obama – era of disengagement:
• The Obama administration’s policies toward the region are not designed to mitigate, let alone end, its real problems.
• That is why the region has gotten worse since President Barack Obama entered office, and why there is no reason to believe that it will get any better before he leaves office.
• Withdrawal from Iraq was an epic mistake. “The U.S. withdrawal from the country was the most important factor that pulled it back into civil war”
• “In 2011, the administration failed to put in place a coherent strategy to deal with the Arab Spring, one that might have assisted a transition to more stable, pluralistic systems of government. Having missed its best opportunities, Washington now barely pays lip service to the need for gradual, long-term reform.”

Hillary Clinton – What could have been
• Clinton’s policies as Secretary of State often held back by Obama
• Each conversation he has with her, she shows command of the issues, an understanding of what needs to be done, and a sense of urgency

Trump – Likely the era of Unpredictability
• He expects Trump to be reactionary and inconsistent in the ME
• Does not think he is smart or informed
• Starting point will be “this is not our problem”
• Not very optimistic about good policies from Trump


Saudi Arabia:
• SA is in unchartered territory with the traditional lines of succession now in doubt
• King Salman bin Abdul Aziz, 80, is supposed to be the last of the founder’s sons to rule
• King Salman elevated his nephew, Mohammad bin Nayef, 56, to the role of crown prince
• Surprisingly he named his own son, Mohammad bin Salman, 30, as deputy crown prince
• These two are now opening vying to become king once the current dies. This rivalry creates political risk that has never existed in SA, exacerbated by worsening economic conditions due to the lower commodity prices
• Monarch has traditionally maintained control by keeping 4 groups under control / happy: 1) clergy 2) the Najds (dominant minority tribe in the center of SA), merchant families, Terrorists

Egypt:
• Current leader el-Sisi is totally in over his head – completely incompetent
• Already seeing rebellions in Egypt, including the Sinai and southwest part of the country
• 40% youth unemployment
• Only fear of Muslim brotherhood is keeping some discontents in check.

Turkey:
• Erdogan is an authoritarian bringing Turkey out of democracy. Turkey is increasingly becoming a dictatorship
• He is ruthless, erratic, and smart
• Problem is, autocracies no longer stable in the ME – Algeria is the only one he considers stable and that is because of the lingering fatigue from their recently ended civil war
• Civil war in Iraq / Syria creating the possibility for civil war in Turkey

Iran:
• Felt Obama negotiated poorly on the nuke deal
• He supported the deal, but characterized the deal as the worst possible deal that he would support
• Agrees with the sentiment that simplistically the deal was to allow Iran to sell oil for 10 to 15 years in exchange for stopping development of their nuke program for that period
• Thinks Trump not honoring the deal is possible and a big mistake. Would be a violation of international law but there is precedent to the US doing this previously, including unilateral sanctions on Iran that eventually were adopted by the UN

Yemen:
• Indifference from the US led to stupid intervention from Saudi Arabia
• Their intervention is a failure, but political rivalries referred to above are complicating any solution
• Iran has gotten involved simply to agitate its rival, which complicates any potential solution

Jordon:
• He feels it is on the brink of collapse but concedes
• The regime “could last 30 years or 30 hours”

Israel:
• His advice to Israel: “this is not your problem. Don’t make it your problem”