The Soapbox

hoolstoptheheels

Joined: 01/04/2001 Posts: 27125
Likes: 34456


Polling is dicey, but directionally, they don’t generally seem to deviate


Too much from the general message in this poll. 538 shows Trump’s unfavorables declining and Biden’s rising in the polls they aggregate. What does it tell us about November? Anti-Trumpies have cause for concern. Predictive value of all these polls are limited, but it can’t give us a warm and fuzzy. Well it gives HO a warm and fuzzy. Lots can change, and general questions don’t necessarily say how people will choose between the two in Nov, but I do shake my head at folks who take a Trump loss as an article of faith.

I think his chances are at least as good as Biden’s. Probably a little better. I thought they ran the one candidate who could lose to Trump in ‘16. I suspect they’re about to repeat that accomplishment 8 yrs later. Trump may not pull it out, but he probably has a better shot than he would against almost any other dem not perceived as being on the extreme left.
[Post edited by hoolstoptheheels at 03/03/2024 09:31AM]

(In response to this post by wahoo138)

Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/


Posted: 03/03/2024 at 09:31AM



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Current Thread:
  Trump's a poll winner and an election loser. ** -- Chuck Taylor 03/03/2024 09:03AM
  Harvard-Harris is a notoriously bad polling outfit -- wahoo138 03/03/2024 09:11AM
  Now do NYT/Siena (link) -- JMHoo 03/03/2024 10:49AM
  Probably at least a 50/50 shot. Maybe a bit higher. -- hoolstoptheheels 03/03/2024 10:28AM
  Biden is not going to debate. ** -- JMHoo 03/03/2024 10:45AM
  Why not? -- Chuck Taylor 03/03/2024 1:02PM
  I'll take that bet ** -- BocaHoo91 03/03/2024 10:50AM
  I doubt that. I don’t think he’s going to have a choice. -- hoolstoptheheels 03/03/2024 10:50AM
  This. Is. Not. Happening!!!!! ** -- ResistHoo 03/03/2024 08:59AM

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