My current thinking is he gets somewhere between 251 and 261 EVs, unless of
course he wins, in which case 2028 is moot.
It would be hard for any party to move off a guy who was that close in the previous election; I mean, it could be 277-261 for example, if Trump takes WI, GA, and NC but loses PA, MI, NV, and AZ.
I don't think, in that case, the Trump wing of the party moves one inch away from him, between 2024 and 2028.
(Parenthetically if Biden loses AZ I think he'll probably lose NV too, which is why he desperately needs to get at least the AZ portion of the MX border straightened out, like, yesterday. Google "Lukeville" or "Lukeville-Sonoyta" for more info on how bad this is playing in a must-have state right now, eleven months from Election Day)
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In response to this post by CMUHoo)
Posted: 01/03/2024 at 3:48PM