Three things that will play into his tenure:

- Almost certainly, little to nothing will come out of this House, and therefore Congress. They'll have to get a continuing resolution through, but with Johnson running the show, it's a complete mystery what he'll try to attach to it that will be acceptable to enough Dems and blue-district Republicans.

- He has little to no fundraising history. A big part of the Speaker's job on the political side is to lead the charge on fundraising. It's a big reason why Pelosi had the longevity she did and continues to influence leadership - she's great at raising money. I'm sure the title will help some, but it remains to be seen whether megadonors will get out the checkbook based on that alone.

- He's a hardliner in ways that will prove difficult for the Republicans - hard anti-abortion, hard anti-LGBT, extremely invested in invalidating the 2020 election.

Factor in his nonexistent name recognition and lack of any real legislative record and it's easy to see why he wasn't at the top of anyone's list. That's not to say a speaker can't still inflict major damage, but the biggest result in the short term will likely be ensuring nothing gets done before the 2024 election. Then he moves on to doing everything in his power to install Trump.