District boundaries should be as compact as possible (I'd have a computer do it). If you get a result that is significantly different proportion of representatives from what would happen in a compact map, that's where gerrymandering is obvious. If it were up to me, I would replace the VRA with a simple rule that says all states must optimize their maps for compactness, ideally with a computer. You'd get roughly the same outcome in places like AL, where if not for the VRA you'd have zero black districts due to gerrymandering. Meanwhile, a compact map here would have 5 red districts, 1 blue district, and 1 that's fairly competitive.

A compact map in NC would be close to 50/50 GOP/Dem. A compact map in Maryland would be 5/2 or 6/1 Dem. A compact map in California is about 80% Dem, so even though the proportion doesn't match Biden's vote total, each Rep is actually representative of their district. There are also a good number of competitive districts there, so the CA delegation can swing quite a bit depending on the political mood. A compact WI map is about 4/4, maybe 5/3 GOP.

In summary, Maryland has a bit of a gerrymander, NC has a huge one, WI has a big one, IL has a huge one. If you add that up around the country, the net effect is about 10 seats to the GOP relative to if every state was just drawn compactly.

If you're really interested in this stuff, Dave's Redistricting App is pretty cool to work with. It's how I can make these arguments on the fly and have numbers to back them up.

[Post edited by CMUHoo at 10/23/2023 1:38PM]