The Soapbox

orangenblue

Joined: 12/07/2002 Posts: 1118
Likes: 785


I'm on the sell side...in terms of what I like now...


I'm afraid that inflation may be more persistent. Every company I follow is raising employee comp materially...in one case a dividend aristocrat that had to do a second mid cycle comp raise....and every company that can (and not all can) are raising prices. Some of my companies are among the biggest employers in the country.

So I've tilted my personal investments towards companies that do relatively well in inflationary periods with pricing power and experience in profiting/managing well during inflationary times. Typical playbook (energy, commodities, branded packaged goods, residential real estate (renters with pricing power, not home builders), some financials that benefit from the rise in rates). I also added some hedges and raised cash to my highest level for my PA.

If Summers is right, and I fear he may be, then overall market multiple will contract further (was at multi decade highs in December and private market valuations still haven't adjusted to private market). I want dry powder for when that happens. Seems like Powell has materially changed his tune (about time)...prepped the market this week for multiple 50 bp hikes. We will see during the May meeting what they mean exactly about how much and how quickly we reduce the Fed balance sheet. So reduction in balance sheet and possibility that Summers is correct (he thinks Fed Funds need to go to 5% to tame inflation) isn't something that is currently discounted.

Good luck with your mom. Had to take care of both my parents and my father in law (both my dad and father in law lived in my home during the last years of their life). Just finished being part of the sandwich generation, unfortunately, two weeks ago...so know how hard that can be.

(In response to this post by TomGlansAski)

Posted: 03/27/2022 at 03:29AM



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Decent speech by Biden in Poland. ** -- hooshouse 03/26/2022 1:51PM
  The speech will be forgotten. -- DanTheFan 03/26/2022 5:21PM
  "God bless our troops." ?? ** -- Newt 03/26/2022 4:50PM
  Details, details ** -- TomGlansAski 03/26/2022 4:45PM
  Well, they’ve walked it back. ** -- hooshouse 03/26/2022 2:46PM
  That comment won’t walk back ** -- WaxHoo 03/26/2022 3:18PM
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  No ** -- WaxHoo 03/26/2022 3:21PM
  Yeah, what the hell? -- hooshouse 03/26/2022 2:24PM
  You would lose that bet... ** -- orangenblue 03/26/2022 6:05PM
  Yes... -- orangenblue 03/26/2022 6:28PM
  Right. Sorry, you'll have to be a lot more specific. ** -- TomGlansAski 03/26/2022 6:41PM
  I don't have to do anything.... -- orangenblue 03/26/2022 7:26PM

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