NATO, which is why he invented a reason to claim he increased his Nuclear alert status - although American Intel reportedly says they see no evidence of an actual change in alert status.

This entire war is mostly because he’s petrified of NATO, demands that it expands no further, and knew he had to act before Ukraine’s status with NATO changes. The nuke talk seems to be just that, to remind everyone that he has those nukes, to keep NATO from intervening.

In Ukraine. He’s bumbling his way through Ukraine. He will imo not risk provoking a confrontation with NATO. But I’m concerned about what desperation would drive him to do if NATO initiates the provocation, such as with a no fly zone.