beat myself up and try one more time.

The CBO numbers represented a change from the previous forecast using the old tax law to a new forecast using the new tax law, not the expected year-over-year impact on tax revenues.

For example (using made up numbers to show the point), let's say that 2017 tax revenues were $3,500, and the CBO's "old" forecast assuming continued old tax law coupled with economic growth projected 2018 tax revenues at $3,700.

When the CBO revised its forecast to account for the new tax cuts (at first ignoring any economic stimulus from the tax cuts themselves - will layer that on in a minute), they revised their forecast to 2018 expected tax revenues of $3,550.

Compared to their previous forecast with $3,700 in 2018 tax revenues, that's a $150 decrease. But it's still $50 more than 2017 $3,500 tax revenues, so holding spending constant, that would reduce the debt by $50. The debt wouldn't get worse by the $150 *variance* but would actually get *better* by $50.

You are absolutely right that the economic stimulus from the tax cuts themselves (promotions, bonuses, increased profits, etc.) should be factored in. Keeping with the example numbers above, once the CBO did so, they estimated that 2018 tax revenues with the new law and improved economy would be $3,590, or a decrease of $110 compared to the previous $3,700 forecast using the 2017 tax law, but still $90 better than 2017 revenues.

You are trying to argue that a $90 increase in revenues from 2017 to 2018 proves that the new/revised $3,590 forecast is not $110 worse than the previously projected $3,700 the CBO estimated under the old tax law.

I swear I'm not twisting into a pretzel to "get Hooda," and I have no doubt that there are possible incorrect/debatable assumptions in the CBO's forecasts (such as underestimating the economic stimulus impact), but you really don't have the best standing to debate those assumptions as long as you are completely misunderstanding the baseline of what the $1.5T/$1.1T CBO estimates represent, which is a change compared to the previous forecast, not the predicted year-over-year actual change in the debt.