The Soapbox

Joined: 01/04/2001 Posts: 27102
Likes: 34420

What's this?

Personally, I'm not. But I sure wouldn't bet a lot against bad outcomes.

For so many reasons. Trade wars never lead to good places. In the past when you see such assertive populist-nationalist movements around the world, war ends up being the outcome. The world now bears some disconcerting similarities with the world in the early 1930s. I just read that the center-right French candidate is in the early throes of scandal that might derail his candidacy, which possibly will leave Marine Le Pen as the last candidate standing!

For all the concerns about underemployment in this country, when you consider that some observers believe that the collapse of 2008 was actually worse than the crash of 1929, our economy did amazingly well after that. Tepid growth and a jobless recovery for quite some time, but after a collapse like that, not that surprising that it took so long. And the economy apparently grew at a pretty robust 3.5% annual rate in Q3 '16 - not too shabby if that turns out to be sustainable.

People credit the fact that we and the world did not repeat the mistakes of the 1930s, and one big one was protectionism. So I guess an equally compelling question is: are you willing to go on record guaranteeing that there won't be a bad outcome?

I would not. And I'm not sure I like the risk/reward relationship. If border security is the concern and the wall is the best solution, build it. No need for all of the inflammatory, demeaning rhetoric about Mexico paying or even the 20% tariff. Neither makes us safer. Don't need that noise - just build the damn thing if that's what you want to do.

(In response to this post by Sabremetrician)

Posted: 01/27/2017 at 3:18PM

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Current Thread:

So it took one week to undo decades of building political goodwill -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 12:51PM

Are you willing to go on record that there will be a bad outcome to this? ** -- Sabremetrician 01/27/2017 2:28PM

That is absolutely my contention. I see no viable way to -- Hoo05Dave 01/28/2017 12:53AM

Yes, I have little faith in his negotiating tactics. ** -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 3:20PM

OK. Be more specific. What will happen? ** -- Sabremetrician 01/27/2017 3:22PM

I don't have time to dig, and I'm interested in the experiment. Below is -- Shenhoo 01/27/2017 3:43PM

So you're predicting high tariffs will be enacted leading to job losses ** -- Sabremetrician 01/27/2017 3:46PM

It's hard to tell if Congress will go along with Trump's rhetoric -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 4:33PM

Where did I predict that? ** -- Shenhoo 01/27/2017 4:32PM

Personally, I'm not. But I sure wouldn't bet a lot against bad outcomes. -- hoolstoptheheels 01/27/2017 3:18PM

Well said. ** -- Hoo05Dave 01/28/2017 12:58AM

Many good points in your post. Especially about the wall. Sure, -- HoosWillWin 01/27/2017 3:42PM

Though, for the record, I personally think it is a waste of money. ** -- HoosWillWin 01/27/2017 3:43PM

As do I. But I am even more baffled by the bullying. -- hoolstoptheheels 01/27/2017 5:03PM

Agreed. ** -- HoosWillWin 01/28/2017 1:43PM

Rebuilding respect with UK, Canada and Isreal -- AlexHoo 01/27/2017 2:15PM

Oh yeah, the Canadians love Trump. Love him. It's huge, it's fantastic. ** -- Seattle .Hoo 01/27/2017 2:18PM

If they voted for that dumb dumb they've got, they should hate Trump. ** -- Hokieesith 01/27/2017 2:42PM

I was thinking of the pipeline that will allow their oit to be imported -- AlexHoo 01/27/2017 2:26PM

Oh you mean that tar sand crap that is now priced out of the market? ** -- Seattle .Hoo 01/27/2017 2:40PM

The Brits hope to do business with him while the iron is hot also -- KCHoo 01/27/2017 2:35PM

The Brits are mostly just happy that we kicked them out of first place in -- WahooRQ 01/27/2017 2:52PM

I kind of think getting out of what the EU is becoming isn't all that dumb -- KCHoo 01/27/2017 2:59PM

In any event, nothing remotely intelligent or redeeming about Donald Trump -- WahooRQ 01/27/2017 3:12PM

I think the world is too worried about it to be laughing -- KCHoo 01/27/2017 3:49PM

Very true. My brother in law just got back from Montreal -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 2:24PM

Not to throw the BS card but how would US Customs even know they intended -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 2:51PM

They asked them and they told them they were going to the march -- KCHoo 01/27/2017 3:31PM

They could be lying about it, but it was reported -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 3:12PM

Thanks for posting that. I'm going with BS, or at the very least that there -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 3:24PM

President Dwayne Elizonodo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho has spoken -- Hooooooooooooooo 01/27/2017 2:15PM

When Trump said he'd unite the country, he didn't say which one. ** -- Seattle .Hoo 01/27/2017 2:13PM

LOL -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 2:15PM

Do you not think that our borders should be secure? ** -- JMHoo 01/27/2017 1:14PM

No, they don't. What plan did they have and implement? ** -- Hokieesith 01/27/2017 2:22PM

The 20% tarriff and constant assertions that "Mexico will Pay" -- hoolstoptheheels 01/27/2017 2:06PM

I don't think building a wall solves anything. -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 1:21PM

Well your ilk has been in charge for 8 years and we know dang well -- TomKazanski 01/27/2017 1:24PM

True, they did nothing. But why? Fear of losing voters? ** -- Hokieesith 01/27/2017 2:43PM

You know nothing. Illegal immigration through our Mexican -- 111Balz 01/27/2017 1:29PM

Don't confuse Tommy with facts- pointless to even engage ** -- Capital City Hoo 01/27/2017 2:52PM

I know. For whatever reason I have not added him -- 111Balz 01/27/2017 3:41PM

You are posting this in response to mr rolling stone himself ** -- TomKazanski 01/27/2017 3:15PM

Because of a stagnant economy and you know that. But yet you keep throwing -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 2:08PM

Wtf are you babbling about. Our economy has been one of the -- 111Balz 01/27/2017 2:52PM

Not just the last several years. Even in those early Obama years, when we -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 3:10PM

Well, not sure where you're getting you info, but you should try again -- 111Balz 01/27/2017 3:35PM

That's not a very well thought out post. ** -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 3:41PM

Whatever. you seem happy. that's all that matters i guess -- 111Balz 01/27/2017 5:29PM

Think about it this way. Trump's policies will endeavour to make it harder -- Seattle .Hoo 01/27/2017 2:15PM

I agree. But that's a big if on whether it becomes policy, and even if it -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 2:45PM

The irony would be appropriate -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 2:30PM

I don't believe Trump can envision a win-win scenario. With him it is -- Seattle .Hoo 01/27/2017 2:37PM

One of the many points he's missing. -- Hoojack 01/27/2017 1:37PM

They are as afraid of Trump as much as you are! -- jdubforwahoowa 01/27/2017 1:30PM

Pre trump ** -- 111Balz 01/27/2017 1:31PM

Right, when they knew Trump was gonna be the next POTUS. ** -- jdubforwahoowa 01/27/2017 1:31PM

Not sure if you are kidding, but no. It was the result of -- KCHoo 01/27/2017 2:17PM

That sounds like some kind of compromise that -- walkthecorner 01/27/2017 2:39PM

Rubio and the repubs that leaned in that direction were eviscerated ** -- KCHoo 01/27/2017 2:49PM

I should have clarified most people not politicians -- walkthecorner 01/27/2017 3:09PM

It was voters who didn't like Rubio's position. ** -- hoodeyo 01/27/2017 6:24PM

I bet you 1 dollar it would pass a national referendum. ** -- walkthecorner 01/27/2017 10:03PM

Most likely. Seems reasonable enough to me. -- hoodeyo 01/28/2017 12:48AM

I was messing with Balz. Good post there. -- jdubforwahoowa 01/27/2017 2:31PM

No, sigh, a multi year trend. mexico's economy has been doing -- 111Balz 01/27/2017 1:36PM

Peso is cratering as we speak. ** -- jdubforwahoowa 01/27/2017 1:39PM

That there is called diplomacy! ** -- 111Balz 01/27/2017 1:45PM

Absolutely. Just think we can do it without -- walkthecorner 01/27/2017 1:19PM

We hold all the cards, don't really need to be concerned with their -- TomKazanski 01/27/2017 12:57PM

All this America First talk reminds me of something a wise man once said -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 1:07PM

CTB for POTUS. Get on it. ** -- jackethoo 01/27/2017 1:21PM

Brogs can ease into it by being his VP. :-) ** -- jdubforwahoowa 01/27/2017 1:22PM

Seconded. Who's making the phone calls? ** -- fphoo 01/27/2017 1:54PM

The problem is, they come here because we need them. -- fphoo 01/27/2017 1:02PM

All the cards? -- Hoojack 01/27/2017 1:00PM

You may have missed his point. IIRC 80% of Mexico's exports come here, and -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 2:04PM

I didn't miss the point. -- Hoojack 01/27/2017 2:16PM

Spot on except for one thing -- fishhoo 01/27/2017 2:40PM

Holding the much better cards? I guess we'll have to just disagree about -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 2:36PM

I guess I just don't see any scenario in which the cost of the wall is... -- Hoojack 01/27/2017 2:49PM

Oh it will be. And then spun to claim Mexico paid for it via some small -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 2:57PM

While that may be true, the article points out something interesting -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 2:13PM

North Korea would agree with that sentiment. Of course psychology has to -- Hoodafan 01/27/2017 2:21PM

I think the question should be how much are we willing to suffer not h... -- Hoojack 01/27/2017 2:24PM

We're literally a step away from watering crops with Gatorade. ** -- WahooRQ 01/27/2017 1:12PM

It's what plants crave ** -- WahooMatt05 01/27/2017 1:13PM

China is loving every minute of this. ** -- walkthecorner 01/27/2017 1:06PM

exactly that other country I was referring to. ** ** -- Hoojack 01/27/2017 1:40PM