as it seems to me that the EC math just does not work out favorably for Trump under the significant majority of plausible scenarios. Sabato has been alluding to this for a while (and did so again this weekend at his Alumni Association speaking engagement) and, aside from his missing badly on Trump's ability to garner the nomination (and who DIDN'T miss that) he has been the pundit/prognosticator that I have found to be the most measured and reliable in the past. In this case, his reasoning is certainly sound. I think Trump could be ahead in the national polling/popular vote and still very easily (even likely) lose the EC, barring a pretty substantial national swing that does not seem likely at present.

I will say that Silver's pieces are interesting, though. One of his points I found particularly interesting (and one that, while seemingly obvious, I had not previously considered) is that the bulk of Hispanic voters are NOT concentrated in swing states, with a significant number found in California and Texas-- That would seem to put the lie to the notion that the Republicans need to do a better job of specifically courting the Hispanic vote to win a national election.
[Post edited by EAPo at 09/06/2016 3:41PM]