..., BUT if nothing else, UK trade stands to benefit from the somewhat drastic re-pricing of sterling downward. That is, at least as long as the prevailing international monetary policy paradigm is a devaluation "race to the bottom" via money printing and zero/negative interest rates. Whether or not I believe that is a "wise" course of action for the UK or the world in the longer run (I don't) is an entirely different issue.

WRT trade agreements, I would not at all be surprised if trade is somewhat more restricted/difficult, but dependent in degree on what the specific details of the "divorce" turn out to be. After all, it only stands to reason if you leave an economic union that your international trade will be somewhat less "free" WRT the union you just left (though perhaps "freer" WRT other trading partners?). OTOH, lets not forget that before Brussels over-reached and tried to turn Europe into a "United States of..." beholden politically to a central authority, that the EU was primarily an economic union, and there is no good reason that it can't go back to being that in the future even if the centralized political authority is uprooted. Will that happen? On balance, probably not, given the state of the world economy, but one never knows. At the end of the day, however, my support for the UK's decision arises not from something as banal as "trade", but, rather, from an aversion to centralized control (particularly of the unrepresentative kind and even more particularly where that control runs contrary to the established social/sociological fabric of the various sovereign NATIONS being subordinated) and a preference for individual sovereignty and liberty as a foundation for public policy. IOW, if trade for the UK falls off a cliff in the short term, I think it's an acceptable price to pay-- but I don't think that that is going to happen. Likely, the UK negotiates new trade deals, perhaps somewhat less favorable than before, perhaps not. But, at the end of the day, the EU is not going to kick the UK completely to the curb-- they need the UK as a participating trade partner probably more than the UK needs them, particularly when you factor in the growing rumblings in other countries for similar referenda.


[Post edited by EAPo at 06/27/2016 5:36PM]