Nice interactive on 538.com on how much change are needed in a demographic

in order to flip a state.

Some quick play around.
- If GOP just get 30% of black votes, the race is essentially tied.

- If black voters turnout drops to 50% to other non-white (I'm guessing black turn-out was higher in 12 due to Obama), FL and OH becomes lean Rep.

- If in addition to that, non-college educated white's turn out rise by 10%, VA could flip and the race would essentially be tied.

- If Asian voters becomes 56% rep, there would be no change. Goes up to 61%, FL flips. I would guess economically, Asian voters are closer to White than Blacks/Hispanics, so not hard to see they might vote more towards GOP. But seems like their influence is too little for GOP to target after.

- If all groups move 1% towards GOP, nothing much change. If all groups move 2% towards GOP, electoral vote gap is less than 20.

Link: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Posted: 04/21/2016 at 4:19PM

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Nice interactive on 538.com on how much change are needed in a demographic -- JohnHoo2 04/21/2016 4:19PM