Half of the people voted for Haley who said they won’t vote for Trump will still fall in line when push comes to shove in November and they will hold their nose and vote for Trump. Having a stranglehold on the Republican party means that you have a floor of 45% of the popular vote. That’s close but it ain’t quite there.

I don’t follow much these days except for my state pols, but the latest Susquehanna pole in Pennsylvania has Trump’s favorability rating underwater, and trailing Biden by about 10 points. Even with the election so far away, overcoming that deficit be difficult, even with Trump’s typical over performance of predictive polling. I’ll bet we see the margin of victory between 3% and 5% here.

The thing about Trump is that everyone already knows him really well. And at least a bit more than half of the country really, really, really does not want him to be president