Of reunification with Taiwan, the clock is ticking on him. Used to be we thought such a war would be likeliest in the early 2030s, when we thought China’s economy was relentlessly growing. Now, I think we see their economy hitting a wall, and they’re on a demographic precipice. So, I think we’ve rethought that timeline for any Chinese aggression.

It probably has to be soon. How much was Xi counting on Taiwan walking back separatist sentiment with this election? Maybe a lot depends on the posture of the new govt towards Beijing, but if Xi thinks force is the only way to make his goal a reality, a contentious election year, with the US embroiled in domestic controversy (particularly about foreign aid), could be his opportunity.