Note that the Pa and Mi poll-ees who stated they voted in 2020, said

they voted Trump by a slight majority. We all know that Biden took those states by a slight majority. That to me factors into the poll showing a slight Trump majority in those two states—it was, by at least a marginal amount, an unrepresentative sampling. When we’re talking one or two percentage points that can make a difference.

I am extremely doubtful Michigan is going to go for Trump over Biden, if they are the two nominees. Extremely so. The resolution of the UAW strikes (and Biden’s stance vs Trump’s) is just one reason; the popularity of Big Gretch is another, and the abortion question is a third.

(Admittedly I feel less confident about PA, WI, NV, and AZ. This poll was actually good news about WI, although I can’t exactly doubt its methodology in states where I didn’t like the result and simultaneously cite its results in a state where I did like the result.)

(In response to this post by Shenhoo)

Posted: 11/05/2023 at 2:11PM

PREV NEXT REPLY

Insert a Link

Enter the title of the link here:

Enter the full web address of the link here -- include the "http://" part:

Current Thread:

Trump leads Biden in 5 battleground states, polling indicates -- Hoos Operator 11/05/2023 08:52AM

It's beyond belief and completely unsurprising at the same time. ** -- Cav113 11/05/2023 1:18PM

Saw that. It's concerning. But....NOW you believe the New York Times??? ** -- Seattle .Hoo 11/05/2023 11:50AM

Lying New York Times again! ** -- 757 11/05/2023 09:07AM

Excellent. These posts are almost as informative as the daily gas price -- Lazarus 11/05/2023 09:04AM

Read the times article if you can. Not very optimistic at all. ** -- walkthecorner 11/05/2023 09:21AM

Larry Sabato with some sage advice -- Hoodeac 11/05/2023 10:54AM

I agree with him. It's still concerning. ** -- Seattle .Hoo 11/05/2023 11:51AM

Everybody SHOULD be concerned about those 5 states, from now until the -- southdenverhoo 11/05/2023 2:16PM

If Biden can keep WI, MI, PA, he's golden. Just barely. ** -- Seattle .Hoo 11/05/2023 3:38PM

Pro tip: remember 2020. And, btw, Hoo’s the legit elected POTUS? ** -- WaxHoo 11/05/2023 09:28AM

I do. Biden was leading in most polls and still -- walkthecorner 11/05/2023 09:35AM

Cautionary tale for dems imo. Polls now are flawed, but we all know -- hoolstoptheheels 11/05/2023 10:10AM

I think you mean the conservative hispanic vote turned out more for Trump. -- HooAskedYou 11/05/2023 1:26PM

I mean that the overall “person of color” vote turned out more for Trump -- hoolstoptheheels 11/05/2023 2:13PM

I agree. While, I have always argued that polls this early aren't -- Shenhoo 11/05/2023 10:35AM

Note that the Pa and Mi poll-ees who stated they voted in 2020, said -- southdenverhoo 11/05/2023 2:11PM

As he was in ‘19 iirc ** -- WaxHoo 11/05/2023 10:01AM

LOL - buh gnus u can yoose, amirite?!?!? ** -- ResistHoo 11/05/2023 09:10AM

Awesome. I can’t wait for another 4 years of -- BocaHoo91 11/05/2023 09:00AM

I hope he spends four years targeting your side -- TomKazanski 11/05/2023 09:11AM

You’re the perfect maga idiot. -- BocaHoo91 11/05/2023 09:16AM

Unless he raped his sister-cousin and meth mom denied her an abortion, I -- WahooRQ 11/05/2023 09:33AM

I realize this poll has to be upsetting -- TomKazanski 11/05/2023 09:27AM

It is what it is. If a majority of this -- BocaHoo91 11/05/2023 09:30AM

^^^ deth wishur. ** -- WaxHoo 11/05/2023 09:15AM

The lead is growing and how could it not -- TomKazanski 11/05/2023 08:58AM

Place your bets ** -- WaxHoo 11/05/2023 09:02AM

The Nigerian Prince you’ve been Hotmailing with will happily place your bet -- WahooRQ 11/05/2023 08:55AM