I took some notes from an expert network call I had on the crisis in Israel. These guys are often wrong so take it with a grain of salt. Obviously these are in notes format:

"Base case is Iran does not get involved and also thinks Israel won’t do a ground offensive in Gaza as it will take a v long time and cost many military personnel. Expect aerial campaign will continue with much more life loss. Even if wrong about ground invasion, even if wrong about Iran involvement, even if US strikes Iran assets, still doesn’t permanently hurt energy markets – Iran exports its own oil through the Straight of Hormuz. China has been relatively constructive in putting pressure on Iran to not escalate. If escalates China will stop buying Iranian oil (buys 91% of Iranian oil). Hamas returning hostages as feels abandoned by Iran. Expected greater support. Doesn’t expect any reduction in Iranian oil output.

Iran relationship with Hamas is nothing like its relationship with Hezbollah. Hamas is its own organisation and takes help from anywhere and everywhere. Hamas is not a Iran proxy. Hamas agenda is to precipitate a big response from Israel and to draw Israel into a ground offensive. Netanhanyu administrations over the years have avoided extensive ground excursions. Israel needs to develop a plan to neutralise Hamas predominantly in the northern part of Gaza and not get stuck in southern parts where things change fast. Hezbollah has spent much of the 13-14 years avoiding confrontation with Israel. In Syria it refused to deploy into areas Israel air forces operated. An arm of Iran’s foreign policy but Iran doesn’t get to order it around – leaderships primary ambition is to be the most important political in Lebanon. Whilst expects an escalation on Northern Israeli border of coming weeks but does not expect Hezbollah to try cause mass civilian casualties given consequences. Agrees likely conflict remains contained. Energy markets – would be surprised if see much more than sabre rattling in the Gulf. "