I think the real indicator of their intentions is Hezbollah. I think Iran’s commitment to open new fronts will be signaled that way, not from operations against us by their proxies in Iraq. If Iran does that, they could probably do a whole lot of damage, but they have to assume that Hezbollah would be hammered into submission when it’s all over. Which means they’d lose their true ability to project power in the mideast. They’d have to count on a whole lot of damage to Israel to offset that.

So, here’s hoping it’s not just wishful thinking, but I think Iran is making token gestures against the war, probably mostly targeting their domestic audience, to try to get their own restive population focused on an enemy other than themselves.