should provide a decent early data point for how the Hispanic vote is trending, especially in that part of the country. The district is 85% Hispanic. It has been a solid blue district, but could go red in this special election based on recent trends and the political environment.

Obama won it by 23% in 2012, Clinton won it by 22%, and Biden won it by 4%. Throughout the last decade, Democrats have won the congressional seat easily. The closest margin was 14%. Everything I’ve seen has it rated a toss up with a good chance for a run-off.