is he too progressive for Pennsylvania especially in this environment? He’ll also need big numbers from black voters and that turnout isn’t a given based on his encounter with a black jogger from several years ago.

On the other side, Republicans will have a mega rich candidate who’s been living out of the state. If it’s Oz, will the rural vote turnout for a Muslim with dual citizenship even with Trump’s endorsement? I think the best case scenario for Republicans is McCormick winning the primary then Trump supporting him leading up to November.

I think it’ll be close no matter what happens with the primary. I’d probably bet on a split ticket right now with a Dem governor and a Rep senator, but that’s a low confidence bet.