Imo, Putin has been the world’s foremost challenger to globalization for at least 15 years. At least of the post WW2 global order. The openness of democracy and capitalism are a threat to his grip in power. So he has long sought to undermine it, mostly with disinformation - “The Great Hack” on Netflix is a great look at his cyber-disinformation efforts in favor of Brexit. It helps explain why every American intelligence service - along with those of our allies - believes he did the same for Trump’s anti-global nationalism in 2016.

Putin is in the process of being weakened, on the world stage at least. He is isolated, and the global structures of NATO and the EU are being reinforced. I do think we are seeing the world prepare to cut Russia out of the global order. That can be a challenge on many fronts, but none are insurmountable imo. Re-inclusion could ultimately be a carrot for them.

Excluding China is a more challenging matter. But I agree that globalization can be a carrot for them, too. They risk more than western powers from a decoupling. I’d also love to see more global free trade agreements, but that’s politically difficult right now. I wish we’d stayed in TPP, but by the general election in ‘16 neither candidate agreed with that.

I do hope Biden pursues global alliances with like-minded nations. Maybe even an “OPEC” of democracies. The hard left and Trumpist right would oppose things like that as it is now. One good thing - if Trump had won in ‘20, NATO would probably be on the rocks right now. As it is, if he (or another Trumpist) wins in ‘24, it will be much harder for him to dismantle NATO in a second term.
[Post edited by hoolstoptheheels at 03/24/2022 2:08PM]