All of the data was suggested a pretty big surge toward Youngkin in the final weeks. Some of the polls you are pointing to that showed a tie or had McAuliffe by 1 at the end of October (based on data from the prior week or so) had him ahead by close to double digits a month ago.

It’s not rocket science. McAuliffe couldn’t close, and indies broke toward Youngkin at the end. His negative campaign about schools was highly effective. Most of us saw his win coming from a mile away, or thought at best Mac would hang on by the margin of error in a state Biden carried by 10%.